Twitter - March 2009 (source: Comscore)Techcrunch reports today that Comscore says twitter reached 19 Million users.

The graph attached shows clearly that it is hockey sticking.

It may look like, but it will be for (very) a long time, and way more than now. Why?

Well, some guy called Ashton Kutcher [1] reached 1,000,000 users and now has 1,4Million which, assuming that Twitter really had 19Million users, would be more than 7% of the total users base.

So, either Twitter is a thing for teenage girls that watch MTV (which is not) or Twitter already has way more users than that.

Assuming it was actually true then Twitter’s future will be something plain unpredictable, because this disproportionate repreentativity (7%) can only be leveled back trough a huge growth that will lead consequently to a more reasonable ratio.

Be ready to see the rest of the stick, this is just the beginning of the curve. Techcrunch points to 50Million users in the summer. I believe it will be at least 80-90 Million. If numbers are made public, people will be surprised by how far low they were aiming. [2]

On a web concept perspective, it is impressive how it can grow so fast. These Hockey Stick kind-of-effects are the beatuty of Online Business Models and their ability to scale.

NOTES

[1] He’s famous because of some insignificant stuff but mainly because of Demi Moore :-)

[2] I also believe that some statistics based on samples from twitter search could be drawn to show that the relevancy of Kutcher’s followers is in fact way less than 5%. Using the 5% assumption, it would demostrate and directly correlate to a more approximate measure  of the real number of registered users in Twitter. Would be fun to spend some time demonstrating this…

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